Dalian Shengya (600593): Existing venues have entered maturity, contributed to stable profits, extended expansion, and successively hatched.

Dalian Shengya (600593): Existing venues have entered maturity, contributed to stable profits, extended expansion, and successively hatched.

Key points of investment: the founders of domestic marine theme parks, new projects have been successively invested.

Dalian Shengya is the only tourism listed company in Liaoning. The company operates five venues, including Shengya Ocean World, Shengya Polar World, and Shengya Deep Sea Legend.

The company established the Harbin Polar Pavilion in 2005.

The company’s initial layout is nationwide. The Wuhu and Huai’an projects of light asset export projects have been opened successively in 2016 and 2017, and the Zhenjiang project of the fifth generation Ocean Park project is under construction.

In 2018, the company initially realized a total of 3 revenues.

48 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.

84%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

58 ppm, an increase of 3 per year.

96%; ticket business income accounted for 84% of expected operating income.

6%.

Previously, the aquarium gradually entered a mature period and became a stable cash cow.

Since 2011, the company has always maintained a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and has been increasing year by year.

Under the trend of the industry’s overall profit level declining, it has become one of the few marine venues that can make a profit from ticket income alone.

Revenue in Dalian in 2018 2.

78 ppm, an increase of 1 per year.

47%; Harbin company’s revenue is 0.

72 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.

01%.

At present, the two venues are gradually entering the mature stage. The second phase of the Harbin project is still under development, and the amount of reception has reached a short-term growth. The growth of the internal part mainly depends on the natural operating leverage of heavy-asset projects and grows steadily.

The fifth-generation aquarium in Zhenjiang is still under construction, and capital requirements for asset-heavy projects are locked.

The total investment of Zhenjiang Project is 10.

US $ 8.9 billion. The company originally planned to raise funds for the Zhenjiang Ocean World project through a fixed increase method. The subsequent fixed increase failed and the schedule was postponed.

On November 26, 2018, the equity transfer agreement of Zhenjiang Project Company was signed: the Zhenjiang Great Beluga 40.

98% of the equity was transferred to the investor Chongqing Modern Logistics Industry Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. After the transfer, the company still has control and the scope of consolidation remains unchanged, thereby reducing funding pressure.

According to our forecast, after the project matures (2026), it can contribute revenue4.

780,000 yuan, net profit after tax1.

5.9 billion.

Follow 29.

The 02% equity share contributed 46.62 million yuan to the mother’s net profit.

It is expected that through the concentrated expansion of external expansion, Shengya’s technological and resource advantages in marine and polar animals will truly translate into market value.

At the end of 2018, the value of the company’s productive biological assets was only 16.83 million yuan measured by the cost method. These animal stars contributed 3 to the venue.

4.8 billion in operating income.

In 2018, the headquarters in Dalian successfully bred 32 Papua penguins independently, and the Harbin project successfully bred 15 Papua penguins independently; it is the single venue with the largest number of penguins in China, and the market price of an adult penguin is between 300,000 and 400,000.There is a huge market value for the biological assets that Shengya realizes every year through breeding alone.

Therefore, the animal resources bred and domesticated by Santa Asia will always provide material security for the remote replication 四川耍耍网 of Santa Asia Oceanarium, and it can also indirectly realize its market value by way of animal shares.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

45/0.

45/0.

55 yuan, corresponding to 73/73/59 times the PE.Due to the limited initial contribution to the profits of the Zhenjiang project at the initial stage, and taking into account the stable cash flow attributes of the company, we valued the company by DCF and obtained a company equity value of 40.

09 million yuan, the current company city rating of 42.

50,000 yuan, covering for the first time, giving a neutral rating.

Risk reminder: sudden natural or social events will affect the overall risk of the tourism industry; the main contradictory development of the IP ecology, the future industry competition pressure will become more intense; Zhenjiang project construction is less than expected.