Cong Gong Education (002607) In-Depth Study: Estimation System: Why are you optimistic about Cong Gong’s 200 billion target market value?
The core point of view is the positioning of public education: a strong brand company with a sustained price increase base is located in a fast-growing channel, and its brand effect is getting stronger and stronger.
If the training industry is divided into four quadrants, public education belongs to the adult exam-oriented education, and the summary of the exam-oriented education is more 杭州龙凤桑拿网 rigid than quality education.
We believe that the training of Zhonggong Education has similar “fuzzy and important” characteristics as the small and early training of thinking about learning: asymmetric information before the test, high cost of trial and error, can bring consumers the choice of the most famous brand and the best service., Leading to the industry’s leading brand effect is getting stronger and stronger, learning and thinking in the elementary school training industry is a typical case.
We believe that the public education brand in the field of “recruitment examinations” will become stronger and stronger.
This feature can bring: ① market share increases, the growth rate is fast; ② product prices have room for continued growth, in the currently visible expectations, at least not lower than the CPI growth rate, and consumers have strong consumer intentions.
合肥夜网 Comparing cosmetics brands, what should be the estimated level under the “peg” system?
Better concentration (combined about 35% in 2 years, compounded about 25% in 3-5 years), better long-term product price expectations, increasingly strong brands, and theoretically speaking, peg’s growth stock valuation systemAbove, based on its brand value, it can own a certain level of premium.
Comparing cosmetics brand companies, it is estimated that the peg levels of Marumi and Pollya of a stock are respectively 1.
Around 5 and 2, the peg levels of overseas companies are above 2.
Judging from the unanimous expected caliber, the peg corresponding to the public education in 20/21/22 is about 1.
We estimate that the holder’s growth space comes from: ① If the PE value is assumed to be unchanged, the peg will rise to 1 in 2022.
From 97 to 2022, the cumulative growth space is about 64%.
② If optimistic, peg = 2 in 2022.
20 will be deduced, and by 2020 there will be a gradual increase of 84%.
PE 值的一个理论基础——戈登模型：PE=1/(r-g)，r 是贴现率，g 是永续增长率，对于中公这样的具有涨价预期的强品牌公司来看，g 比较高.
The theoretical basis reflects the strong brand consumer goods with the ability to increase prices in the long run. The theory should have higher copyright returns.
A typical comparable case-the good future of 2017-2019: the expected change of the good future in the past three years (2017-2020) has a very strong reference, from 201706 to the present, the future of the good may increase significantly200%.
Specifically, the good future is 2017.
The corresponding PE of 10 is estimated to be about 70x, and the corresponding peg is about 1.
2. Later, the performance growth speeded up to 2019.
It is estimated that the corresponding PE is still around 70x, and the corresponding peg is about 2.
During this period, it is estimated that the lowest corresponding non-PE in the future will also reach 50x, and the peg has never been lower than 1.
Investment suggestion: For a brand consumer goods company with a good enough budget and sufficient growth, the holding time is long enough, and even if the expected growth is not considered, the growth performance can bring considerable benefits.
We expect the first quarter results to be affected by the epidemic interference, but the expected performance is relatively small, and we expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 19-2116.
400 million US dollars, corresponding to 69/51/40 times the corresponding P / E, leading advantages continue to be highlighted, maintain the buy rating, raise the target price to 25 yuan.
Risk reminder: impact of epidemic situation; policy risk; risk of enrollment reduction and other risks.